就在明天！美最高法院关税意见日敲定，美股、美债市场迎来“大考”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to make a final ruling on Trump's comprehensive tariff plan, which will significantly impact the U.S. stock and bond markets. Analysts expect that if the tariffs are deemed illegal, the stock market may benefit from improved corporate profit expectations, while the bond market could face selling pressure due to renewed concerns over fiscal deficits and a more complex policy path from the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Stock Market Implications - If the Supreme Court rules to cancel the current tariffs, the impact will vary significantly across different sectors. Companies reliant on imported goods or global supply chains are expected to benefit directly, while domestic producers previously supported by trade protection may lag [2]. - The consumer goods sector, particularly in clothing, toys, and home goods, is likely to be the most clear-cut winner due to high reliance on overseas imports and elevated tariff rates, alleviating cost pressures and profit uncertainties [2]. - The industrial manufacturing and transportation sectors may also benefit from tariff refunds and potential economic stimulus effects. Large banks in the financial sector could see gains from improved overall consumer confidence, while more volatile fintech sub-sectors may experience significant fluctuations due to market sentiment changes [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Concerns - Bond traders are preparing for potential market volatility, although the expected impact is generally viewed as temporary. U.S. Treasury bonds recorded over 6% returns in 2025, marking the best annual performance since 2020, largely due to market bets on continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The cancellation of tariffs could create a revenue gap for the government, reigniting concerns over the federal budget deficit. Analysts from JPMorgan highlight the risk of renewed fiscal worries, which could push up long-term yields and steepen the yield curve [3]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the need for investors to monitor the timing and scale of potential tariff refunds to importers, as this will directly affect Treasury issuance demand. They believe that initial selling in the bond market may be short-lived, with a potential for a "fact-based buy-in" to lower yields again [3].