爷爷的农场IPO“大拆解”：多名大客户“兼任”供应商 三成收入用于“投流”

Core Viewpoint - The company "爷爷的农场" is aiming for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing strong growth in the organic baby food sector, but faces challenges related to its business model and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - "爷爷的农场" has been established for 10 years and is ranked first in China's organic baby food sector, with a revenue growth rate exceeding 40% and a gross margin close to 60% [1]. - The company has a diverse product range, including baby food, cooking oils, and snacks, with 269 SKUs, over one-third of which are certified organic [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported revenues of 6.22 billion yuan for 2023, 8.75 billion yuan for 2024, and 7.80 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with profits of 754.6 million yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 874.2 million yuan respectively [2][10]. Group 2: Sales Channels and Marketing Costs - The company heavily relies on e-commerce, with over 70% of its revenue coming from this channel, and sales from e-commerce platforms were 4.5 billion yuan, 6.52 billion yuan, and 5.63 billion yuan for the respective years [3][4]. - Marketing expenses are significant, with sales and distribution costs of approximately 2.01 billion yuan, 3.06 billion yuan, and 2.83 billion yuan, representing 32.3%, 35.0%, and 36.3% of total revenue for the respective periods [4]. - The company incurs about 1 yuan in service and promotion fees for every 3.6 yuan in sales on e-commerce platforms, indicating high marketing costs [4]. Group 3: Business Model and Production - "爷爷的农场" operates primarily on an OEM model, with only 27 out of 640 employees involved in manufacturing, relying on 62 OEM manufacturers for production [6][10]. - The company has a factory in Guangzhou for limited self-production and quality control, but the majority of its production is outsourced [6]. - The overlap between major customers and suppliers raises concerns regarding pricing fairness and regulatory scrutiny, particularly in relation to IPO approval [8]. Group 4: Market Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges from a declining birth rate in China, with the number of children aged 0-6 decreasing from 110 million in 2020 to 80.7 million in 2024 [10]. - Despite the declining birth rate, the organic baby food market is expected to grow due to increasing consumer demand for high-quality products, with significant opportunities for market penetration and product extension [10]. - The company is positioned to leverage its brand strength in the organic segment and may achieve sustainable growth by optimizing its supply chain and marketing efficiency [10].