2025年地方债盘点： 首次突破10万亿 支持基建、楼市

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in 2025 reached a historic high of approximately 10.3 trillion yuan, marking the first time it has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Highlights - The issuance of new local government bonds in 2025 amounted to 5.37 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, while refinancing bonds totaled 4.93 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 2.9% [3]. - The increase in the issuance limit for new bonds to 5.2 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year and an additional 0.5 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter aimed to stabilize investments and support local governments in addressing hidden debt [3][5]. Group 2: Allocation of Funds - Approximately 26.5% of the new special bond funds were allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17% to land reserves, and 16.9% to transportation infrastructure [4]. - The support for real estate-related projects has significantly increased, with over 20% of new special bond funds directed towards land reserves, old renovations, and the acquisition of existing residential properties [4]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - In 2025, 3.68 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued for debt resolution, reflecting an 8.8% increase, which helped to replace hidden debts and alleviate financial pressures [5]. - The average issuance interest rate for local government bonds fell below 2% for the first time, indicating a decrease in borrowing costs [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to continue to expand in 2026, with recommendations for a deficit rate of over 4% and approximately 1 trillion yuan in new general bonds to ensure necessary expenditures [8]. - There is a focus on optimizing the allocation of special bonds towards new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, while maintaining support for traditional infrastructure and public services [8].