需要稳汇率吗

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) in 2024, emphasizing that while there is a long-term potential for appreciation based on purchasing power parity, the reliance on exports will likely limit the extent of this appreciation in the short term [1]. Economic Dependence on Exports - China's economy is highly dependent on exports, with the net export contribution to economic growth projected at 30.3% in 2024, an increase from 2023 [1]. - The trade surplus for goods in the first eleven months of 2025 is expected to exceed $1 trillion, although the current account surplus will be smaller due to a long-term service trade deficit [1]. Impact of Trade Surplus on Currency - A significant trade surplus does not necessarily lead to a direct increase in RMB value, as part of the surplus may remain in foreign currency accounts or be used for debt repayment and investments [3]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is a more direct factor influencing the exchange rate [3]. Export Structure and Currency Appreciation - The export structure shows that labor-intensive products, which account for about 15.1% of total exports, are vulnerable to RMB appreciation due to their reliance on price competitiveness [3]. - In contrast, high-tech products like integrated circuits and automobiles, which make up 60.9% of exports, are less affected by currency fluctuations and may benefit from lower import costs for core components [5]. Resilience of Exports - The resilience of China's exports is supported by a complete industrial cluster, a skilled workforce, and rapid product innovation capabilities, marking a transition from being the "world's factory" to a regional innovation center [6]. Commodity Pricing and Import Costs - Major commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, and RMB appreciation could help control import prices, which would otherwise increase costs for intermediate and consumer goods [8]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is suggested as a means to support domestic populations affected by foreign trade dynamics, allowing for higher export prices and potentially benefiting domestic welfare [8]. Overall Assessment of RMB Appreciation - The article concludes that RMB appreciation is more beneficial than detrimental, with the negative impact on exports being overstated, suggesting that the government is unlikely to excessively intervene in the appreciation process [8].