BHP Rallies 29% in 6 Months: How to Play the Stock Right Now?

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group Limited has demonstrated strong performance with a 29.2% increase in shares over the past six months, outperforming the mining industry and the broader market, supported by record iron ore production and strategic capital allocation towards copper and potash [1][4][30]. Group 1: Financial Performance - BHP generated $18.7 billion in operating cash flow for fiscal 2025, despite a 10% year-over-year decline due to lower prices, maintaining a strong cash flow history [6][17]. - The company ended fiscal 2025 with net debt of $12.9 billion, within its target range of $10-$20 billion, allowing for continued investment [18]. - A final dividend of 60 cents per share was announced, reflecting a payout ratio of 60%, with total cash returns to shareholders for fiscal 2025 amounting to $5.6 billion [19]. Group 2: Production and Operations - BHP achieved a record iron ore production of 263 million tons (Mt) in fiscal 2025, exceeding its guidance and marking a 1% increase year-over-year [8]. - For fiscal 2026, BHP anticipates iron ore production between 258-269 Mt, with Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) expected to produce 251-262 Mt [9]. - The company is investing in expanding WAIO's production capacity, with expectations to exceed 305 Mt annually in the medium term [10]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - BHP is reallocating nearly 70% of its medium-term capital expenditure towards copper and potash, positioning itself to benefit from trends such as decarbonization and urbanization [11]. - Copper production reached a record 2,017 kilotons (kt) in fiscal 2025, with a target of 1,800-2,000 kt for fiscal 2026, reflecting a 28% increase over three years [12]. - The Jansen Stage 1 potash project is 73% complete, expected to produce 4.35 million tons annually once operational by mid-2027, with plans for further expansion [13][14]. Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - BHP's current dividend yield stands at 3.66%, significantly higher than the industry average of 2.09% and the S&P 500's 1.07% [25]. - The company is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 14.34X, which is below the industry average of 17.32X, indicating attractive valuation [28]. - Despite being more expensive than some peers like Rio Tinto and Vale, BHP's strong fundamentals and growth prospects make it a compelling investment [29]. Group 5: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BHP's fiscal 2026 earnings is $4.51 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 23.9% [20]. - Earnings estimates have shown an upward trend over the past 90 days, reflecting positive market sentiment [22].