Ge Long Hui·2026-01-08 21:17Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see significant trading activity in 2025, driven by macroeconomic recovery, favorable policies, industrial upgrades, and improved global liquidity, leading to high growth in Hong Kong Stock Exchange's performance [1] Market Overview - As of December 2025, the market capitalization of the Hong Kong securities market was HKD 47.39 trillion, a decrease of 1.26% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 34.18% year-on-year [1] - The average daily trading amount (ADT) for 2025 reached HKD 249.82 billion, up 90.28% year-on-year, with Q4 ADT at HKD 229.81 billion, reflecting a 22.97% increase year-on-year but a 19.75% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][2] Southbound Capital Inflow - In 2025, southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.301455 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 74.92%, with quarterly inflows of HKD 411.33 billion, HKD 272.86 billion, HKD 399.99 billion, and HKD 217.28 billion respectively [2] - The influx of southbound capital has significantly boosted trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market [2] IPO Market - In 2025, there were 117 new listings, an increase of 47 compared to the previous year, with total IPO fundraising amounting to HKD 285.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 224.24% [2] - The increase in IPO fundraising was largely driven by major A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, contributing to 49.02% of the total IPO fundraising [2] Derivatives and Commodity Market - In 2025, the average daily trading volume of futures and options reached 1.663 million contracts, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [3] - The average daily trading volume of metal contracts on the LME was 757,000 lots, reflecting a 14.0% year-on-year increase [3] Interest Rate Impact - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the HIBOR rate has seen a slight decline, with the 6-month HIBOR dropping from 4.17% at the beginning of 2025 to 2.99% [4] - The decline in interest rates is expected to enhance trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market, which may offset some negative impacts on investment income [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to increase by 26.53%, 2.70%, and 3.84% respectively, reaching HKD 28.31 billion, HKD 29.07 billion, and HKD 30.19 billion [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are expected to rise by 38.49%, 6.22%, and 4.01% respectively, reaching HKD 17.60 billion, HKD 18.69 billion, and HKD 19.44 billion [5] Market Dynamics - The ongoing liquidity support from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market [6] - The continuous inflow of southbound capital is anticipated to maintain high trading activity levels [6] - The valuation advantage of the Hong Kong stock market remains, with the Hang Seng Index's PE-TTM at approximately 11.96 times, compared to the 17.00 times of the CSI 300 [6] Long-term Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to benefit from increased trading activity and valuation uplift, with a target price of HKD 520 per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [7]