Tesla's Story Has Faded, Gordon Johnson Says—Here's The 'Generous' Valuation Musk Probably Won't Retweet

Core Viewpoint - Analyst Gordon Johnson maintains a Sell rating on Tesla, raising the price target from $19.05 to $25.28, citing deteriorating earnings due to missed delivery estimates and increased competition [1][2]. Group 1: Tesla's Business Segments - Tesla's energy generation and storage segment experienced a 12.1% year-over-year growth in Q4, but this growth is insufficient to offset declines in the automotive business [2]. - The analyst estimates that Tesla's global deliveries will decline by 1.1% in 2024 and 7.7% in 2025, with a potential 15% drop in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Factors negatively impacting Tesla's automotive business include the loss of the federal EV tax credit in the U.S., increased competition in China, and brand erosion in Europe [3]. - Johnson highlights that Tesla no longer leads in autonomy or robotics, with competitors like Nvidia and Uber gaining ground [5]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - Johnson provides a "generous" sum-of-the-parts valuation for Tesla, estimating a total value of $63.85 per share, broken down as follows: Optimus at $12.12, FSD at $31.09, car business at $17.09, and energy business at $3.54 [6]. - The analyst emphasizes that once Tesla loses its leadership in robots or autonomy, the narrative supporting the stock will collapse, indicating that fundamentals have not mattered for years [6][4].