新火研究院：新年市场有望迎来流动性和情绪双修复

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market is recovering from the liquidity vacuum and panic selling at the end of the previous year, with improved liquidity and investor sentiment observed in early 2026 [4][15] - Bitcoin is expected to challenge the $100,000 mark after the current adjustment, which is a significant resistance level and a bull-bear dividing line since the downturn began in October last year [2][15] - The market experienced a significant drop in Q4 2025, with Bitcoin reaching a historical high before a major crash, leading to a 33% decline in overall market capitalization, equating to a loss of over $1.4 trillion [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. spot ETF recorded substantial net inflows in the first two trading days of the new year, attracting traditional institutional funds back into the market [8][14] - The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index turned positive, indicating a resurgence in buying demand from the U.S. market, which is a key sentiment indicator [11] - The "Fear and Greed Index" has rebounded from extreme fear to a neutral zone, reflecting a restoration of market confidence [14] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative, with expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, which is favorable for risk assets [15] - The integration of Bitcoin into national strategic reserves by various countries is enhancing the credibility of crypto assets, elevating them from "alternative investments" to "strategic reserves" [15] - The recent increase in ETF approvals for Solana indicates growing recognition from traditional funds [15]