马杜罗垮台，中国在委内瑞拉的“那些大投资”，会有怎样的风险？

Core Viewpoint - The political upheaval in Venezuela, marked by the abduction of President Maduro by U.S. forces, poses significant implications for China's extensive investments in the country, which have spanned over two decades [1]. Investment Overview - China is Venezuela's largest creditor, oil trading partner, and investor, with investments spanning energy, infrastructure, and public welfare sectors [1]. - As of the end of 2025, China has lent approximately $68 billion to Venezuela, with about $50 billion repaid through oil, leaving a remaining debt of around $10 billion [3][5]. Energy Cooperation - The "loan-for-oil" model has been beneficial for both parties, allowing Venezuela to leverage its vast oil reserves while China benefits from low-priced oil and interest from loans [5]. - Venezuela's oil is sold to China at prices $10-15 lower than international rates, creating a dual profit opportunity for China [5]. Risks from Political Change - The potential rise of a pro-U.S. government may lead to a renegotiation of debts or even a freeze on repayment obligations, posing a risk of default on the $10 billion debt [6]. - The new government may also reconsider existing contracts, which could threaten China's investments in key oil projects [12]. Strategic Importance of Oil Projects - Major projects include: - Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt, with a production capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, primarily for China [12]. - Sumano Oilfield, producing 60,000 barrels per day, all directed to China [12]. - Maracaibo Lake Oilfield, facing uncertainty due to the political transition [12]. Infrastructure Investments - Chinese companies dominate Venezuela's infrastructure sector, with significant contributions in electricity, transportation, housing, and telecommunications [14]. - Projects include eight power plants providing 60% of the national electricity, railway expansions, and 5G network construction [14]. Opportunities Amidst Risks - Despite the political uncertainties, there are potential opportunities for China, such as: - Energy infrastructure reconstruction, requiring $80 billion for repairs [17]. - Development of strategic minerals, particularly rare earths [17]. - Agricultural integration and digital payment systems [17]. - Renewable energy projects, with plans for 200 GW of new capacity by 2030 [17].