日美长期利差持续缩小，日元买盘仍未出现

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the Japanese yen exchange rate and the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential has significantly changed over the past six months, shifting from "interest rate changes driving exchange rate changes" to "yen depreciation leading to rising interest rates" [2][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The Japan-U.S. long-term interest rate differential has continued to narrow, decreasing from approximately 2.9% six months ago to 2.075% as of January 6, with Japan's long-term rate at 2.095% and the U.S. at 4.17% [2][3]. - The actual interest rate differential, calculated from fixed-rate bond yields minus the breakeven inflation rate, has also decreased from about 2.1% to 1.58% over the same period [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Despite the narrowing interest rate differential, there has been no significant increase in yen buying, as market concerns grow over the Bank of Japan's potential lag in raising interest rates [2][6]. - The depreciation of the yen has raised domestic inflation expectations, leading to a belief that the Bank of Japan may be forced to increase rates, thus pushing interest rates higher [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if concerns about the Bank of Japan's delayed response diminish and inflation stabilizes, the relationship between the yen exchange rate and the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential may potentially restore [7]. - The demand for U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds is expected to increase as the long-term interest rate spread widens, with projections indicating that U.S. long-term rates may decrease to the mid-3% range within a year [5].