2025年全国期货市场累计成交量、成交额同比分别增长17.4%和23.74%

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market showed significant growth in December, with a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts and a turnover of 90.81 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 45.17% and 58.55% respectively [1] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative trading volume is projected to reach 90.74 billion contracts and a turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% [1] Trading Volume and Turnover by Exchange - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is expected to have a trading volume of approximately 23.35 billion contracts and a turnover of about 259 trillion yuan by 2025, with year-on-year growth of 3.31% and 27.86% [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) anticipates a trading volume of around 31.38 billion contracts and a turnover of approximately 88.96 trillion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 20.26% and 4.47% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is projected to have a trading volume of about 26.07 billion contracts and a turnover of around 102.77 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 14.94% and 4.49% [1] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) expects a trading volume of approximately 3.04 billion contracts and a turnover of about 255.19 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 33.66% [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) anticipates a trading volume of around 5.34 billion contracts and a turnover of approximately 31.60 trillion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 171.62% and 190.27% [1] Leading Futures Products - In December, the top three futures products by turnover included SHFE's silver, gold, and copper futures, ZCE's PTA, caustic soda, and glass futures, DCE's coking coal, palm oil, and soybean meal futures, and GFE's lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and platinum futures [2] - By trading volume, the leading products were SHFE's silver, rebar, and silver options, ZCE's glass, PTA, and methanol futures, DCE's soybean meal, PVC, and coking coal futures, and GFE's lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate options, and industrial silicon futures [2] Market Drivers and Trends - The growth of the Chinese futures market is attributed to increased hedging demand from industries due to factors such as fluctuating tariffs, a loose global monetary policy environment, rising geopolitical risks, and domestic economic adjustments [3] - The influx of long-term capital into the capital market, particularly from insurance funds, has also contributed to the increased hedging demand [3] - The recovery of operational conditions in real enterprises, especially in new sectors like renewable energy and AI, has boosted optimistic expectations for the demand for new energy materials [3] Performance of Commodity Markets - The commodity market experienced more declines than gains last year, with precious metals rising for the fourth consecutive year; gold and silver prices increased by 55.77% and 124.62% respectively [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed strongly, with copper and tin prices rising by 33.18% and 29.01% respectively, while the energy and chemical sector saw a decline, with oil prices dropping by 10.98% [4] Future Outlook - The futures market is expected to continue its high-quality development, with anticipated growth in trading volume and turnover of 10% to 15% this year [4] - New products like coking coal options are expected to be launched, further expanding the service range of the futures market to cover new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors [4] - The demand for hedging from real enterprises is projected to increase due to ongoing global commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks [4]