帮主郑重：原油、铜、白银“三兄弟”，各怀心事

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing divergent trends, with oil prices rising due to geopolitical risks, copper facing short-term corrections but long-term demand growth, and silver declining due to technical selling pressures from index rebalancing [3][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices have rebounded over 3%, approaching $58 per barrel, driven by the return of "geopolitical risk premium" amid tensions in the Middle East and the impact of U.S. control over Venezuelan oil [3]. - The annual commodity index rebalancing is expected to lead to significant passive investment in oil futures, providing additional support to prices despite concerns over supply surplus [3]. Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices have retreated from recent highs, influenced by a stronger dollar and normal market corrections after previous gains [4]. - Long-term demand for copper is expected to increase due to the AI race and rising global defense spending, which may lead to supply shortages, making any short-term price corrections potential buying opportunities [4]. Group 3: Silver Market - Silver has seen significant declines for two consecutive days, primarily due to the annual commodity index rebalancing, which requires passive funds to sell approximately $6.8 billion worth of silver futures [4]. - The selling pressure is largely technical and not fundamentally driven, leading to short-term price volatility [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For oil, investors should adopt an event-driven and tactical approach, closely monitoring geopolitical developments and the actual flow of rebalancing funds [5]. - In copper, a "long-term view with short-term actions" strategy is recommended, taking advantage of short-term corrections while recognizing its long-term scarcity [5]. - For silver and gold, investors should be cautious of the technical selling pressure from index rebalancing, which may create attractive price points for long-term investors once selling pressure subsides [5].