从“预测下一个词”到“预测世界状态”：智源发布2026十大 AI技术趋势

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the report is that AI is transitioning from merely predicting language to understanding and modeling the physical world, marking a significant paradigm shift in technology [1][4][5]. Group 1: Key Trends in AI Technology - Trend 1: The consensus in the industry is shifting from language models to multi-modal world models that understand physical laws, with Next-State Prediction (NSP) emerging as a new paradigm [7]. - Trend 2: Embodied intelligence is moving from laboratory demonstrations to real-world industrial applications, with humanoid robots expected to transition to actual service scenarios by 2026 [8]. - Trend 3: Multi-agent systems are becoming crucial for solving complex problems, with the standardization of communication protocols like MCP and A2A facilitating collaboration among agents [9]. Group 2: Applications and Market Dynamics - Trend 4: AI is evolving from a supportive tool to an autonomous researcher, with the integration of scientific foundational models and automated laboratories accelerating research in new materials and pharmaceuticals [10]. - Trend 5: The competition for consumer AI super applications is intensifying, with major players like OpenAI and Google leading the way in creating integrated intelligent assistants [11]. - Trend 6: After a phase of concept validation, enterprise AI applications are entering a "valley of disillusionment," but a recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 as data governance improves [12]. Group 3: Data and Performance Enhancements - Trend 7: The reliance on synthetic data is increasing, which is crucial for model training, especially in fields like autonomous driving and robotics [13]. - Trend 8: Optimization of inference remains a key focus, with ongoing innovations in algorithms and hardware reducing costs and improving efficiency [15]. - Trend 9: The development of a heterogeneous software stack is essential to break the monopoly on computing power and mitigate supply risks [16]. Group 4: Security and Ethical Considerations - Trend 10: AI security risks are evolving from "hallucinations" to more subtle "systemic deceptions," necessitating a comprehensive approach to safety and alignment in AI systems [17]. Conclusion - The report outlines ten key AI technology trends that provide a clear anchor for future technological exploration and industry layout, emphasizing the importance of collaboration across academia and industry to drive AI towards a new phase of value realization [18].