2025零售业复盘：量贩零食店从“万店狂奔”到“红利拐点”，谁是下一个出局者？

Core Viewpoint - The snack retail industry in China is transitioning from chaotic expansion to a phase focused on efficiency, innovation, and brand building, marking a significant structural transformation by 2025 [1][41]. Industry Overview - By 2025, the "dual oligopoly" structure of the snack retail industry has formed, with leading companies like Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group significantly expanding their store counts and revenue [2][9]. - The total number of snack retail stores in China is projected to grow from approximately 38,000 in 2024 to 45,000 in 2025, reflecting a vibrant market despite overall retail pressures [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The market share of snack specialty stores has increased from 7.6% in 2019 to 14% in 2024, with the GMV growing from 218.4 billion RMB to 419 billion RMB during the same period [4]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from price wars to efficiency battles, with consumer demand evolving from "cost-effectiveness" to "quality-price ratio" [2][4]. Financial Performance - Mingming Hen Mang reported a revenue of 463.71 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a 75.2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 18.10 billion RMB, reflecting a 240.8% growth [9]. - Wancheng Group's revenue surged from 5.49 billion RMB in 2022 to 365.62 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, with a staggering 917.04% increase in net profit [10]. Business Model and Expansion - The snack retail model has evolved to focus on high SKU counts and a diverse product range, with stores like Mingming Hen Mang offering up to 3,997 SKUs, significantly higher than traditional supermarkets [18][24]. - The franchise model has become a key driver of growth, with over 99% of Mingming Hen Mang's stores operated by franchisees, allowing for rapid expansion and capital influx [22][23]. Challenges and Future Directions - The industry faces challenges such as declining same-store sales and prolonged profitability cycles for franchisees, raising concerns about the sustainability of the business model [12][35]. - Future growth strategies may include deeper penetration into lower-tier markets, international expansion, broadening product categories, and enhancing private label offerings to improve profit margins [37][39][40]. Conclusion - The snack retail industry is poised for a high-quality development phase, focusing on efficiency and brand strength, as it navigates through a competitive landscape that demands adaptability and innovation [41][42].