突发！知名投行重启做空白银：三个月内银价恐大幅走低

Core Viewpoint - TD Securities has initiated a short position on silver futures, expecting significant price declines in the next three months as market fundamentals begin to balance [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - TD Securities' senior commodity strategist, Daniel Ghali, established a short position at $78 per ounce for March silver futures, targeting a price of $40 per ounce, with a stop-loss set at $92 per ounce [2]. - The March silver futures closed at $77.94 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 4% decline on the day [2]. - The firm anticipates that up to 13% of total open contracts in the Comex silver market will be liquidated in the next two weeks, leading to a significant downward price adjustment [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market experienced a surge of nearly 150% in the previous year, driven by strong industrial demand and increased investor interest, which led to a significant supply gap [3]. - Ghali noted that the recent price increase was excessive and that higher prices are expected to prompt a rebalancing in the physical market [3]. - Potential tariffs on imported silver by the U.S. could exacerbate supply chain issues, although TD Securities does not expect these tariffs to be implemented [3]. Group 3: Historical Context - This marks TD Securities' second attempt to short silver; the first was in October of the previous year when silver prices exceeded $50 per ounce, resulting in a loss of approximately $2.4 million [4].