Core Viewpoint - After the New Year, the mainstream region's soda ash spot prices have gradually stabilized, with an increase in export volume in November 2025, but domestic demand remains weak, keeping prices low [1] Group 1: Supply and Production - In 2025, the national soda ash production reached 37.857 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with December production rising to 3.18 million tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic ammonia-soda plants was 79.2% as of January 2, 2026, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points month-on-month and 7.3 percentage points year-on-year; the operating rate of the soda-lime process was 72.7%, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month and 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Two new production units are planned to be commissioned in the first quarter of 2026, adding a total capacity of 3.7 million tons per year, bringing the total domestic soda ash capacity to 44.6 million tons per year [2] - Domestic soda ash companies have been depleting inventory for two consecutive weeks, with inventory dropping to 1.4083 million tons as of January 2, a decrease of 30,200 tons week-on-week and 40,000 tons year-on-year, although the absolute inventory level remains high [2] Group 2: Export and Demand - In November 2025, soda ash exports totaled 189,400 tons, a decrease of 25,100 tons month-on-month; the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.9612 million tons, an increase of 922,500 tons year-on-year [2] - The increase in export volume is primarily due to domestic soda ash prices being at a low point, leading to increased export orders; however, future export growth remains uncertain with rising spot prices [2] - As of January 2, 2026, the daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 153,300 tons, a decrease of 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in December 2025 was 73,500 tons, an increase of 4.2% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year [3] - The demand structure for heavy soda indicates that float glass accounts for 35%-40% and photovoltaic glass for 10%-15%; float glass production decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, while photovoltaic glass production fell by 9.3% year-on-year [3] - Light soda demand has increased due to the recovery in the lithium carbonate industry, while the demand for alumina and detergents remains stable; overall, the short-term supply-demand balance for soda ash is unlikely to change significantly [3]
基本面变化不大 纯碱上方空间有限
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2026-01-09 00:42