宝成期货：焦煤追高需谨慎

Core Viewpoint - Coking coal futures prices have surged at the beginning of the year, with a significant increase in trading volume and a notable drop in the auction failure rate, although prices have only slightly risen [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures prices rose sharply due to a recovery in commodity market sentiment, with strong performance in non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and new energy metals since October 2025 [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics in the coking coal market have not shown substantial improvement, with domestic supply increasing steadily as many coal mines in major production areas resume operations [1] Group 2: Supply Analysis - From January 1 to 5, 2026, 49 coal mines resumed production, involving a capacity of 75.05 million tons, indicating a potential month-on-month increase in output [1] - As of January 8, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.3%, with an average daily output of 1.899 million tons, reflecting significant month-on-month increases of 5.7 percentage points and 127,000 tons respectively [1] - The average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu port for Mongolian coal was 191,100 tons last month, showing month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 6.14% and 130% respectively [1] Group 3: Demand Analysis - Steel mills have begun to resume production, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.2743 million tons reported by 247 sample steel mills as of January 7, 2026, marking a slight increase from previous lows [2] - Despite some improvement in raw material demand, uncertainties remain due to ongoing losses in long-process steel mills and high inventory levels in the downstream market, which may limit the ability to absorb increased supply from steel mills [2] - Overall, while there is some improvement in coking coal demand, the growth potential appears limited, necessitating close monitoring of the winter storage replenishment pace and intensity by downstream steel and coking plants [2]