中盛期货：供应预期收紧，焦炭价格上行

Group 1 - The recent surge in coking coal prices is primarily driven by policy disruptions in coking coal supply and the combined effects of market sentiment and funding conditions [1][3] - A recent meeting in Yulin City announced the removal of 26 coal mines from the electricity supply guarantee list due to non-compliance with supply responsibilities, which may tighten coal supply elasticity but not significantly reduce total output [1] - The meeting indicates a shift in policy management towards more flexible coal production oversight, potentially influencing other coal-producing regions and amplifying market expectations of supply contraction [1] Group 2 - Mongolia's recent revocation of special mining licenses for four companies is aimed at deepening mining governance rather than restricting coal output, with a clear intention to increase coal exports to China [2] - Despite the license revocations, the impact on Mongolia's coking coal exports to China is expected to be minimal, as Mongolia remains the largest supplier of coking coal to China, accounting for 50.9% of total imports [2] - Long-term, effective anti-corruption and governance measures in Mongolia could enhance the investment and operational environment in the coal sector, improving supply stability and efficiency [2] Group 3 - The current market for coking coal is experiencing a marginal tightening in supply and demand, with daily pig iron production showing signs of recovery and steel mill profit margins increasing to 38.1% [3] - Coking coal prices are heavily influenced by coking coal costs, and while there is some demand from coking plants, there is caution regarding expanding production due to high raw material prices [3] - The consensus among domestic coking enterprises is to proactively reduce production and control costs, indicating a cautious approach to market fluctuations despite being in an upward price trend [3]