商品日报（1月8日）：金属板块普遍回调 多晶硅多数合约封板跌停

Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a high-level correction on January 8, with significant declines in the metal sector. The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1607.00 points, down 25.99 points or 1.59% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index also fell to 2217.47 points, a decrease of 35.86 points or 1.59% [1] Metal Sector Performance - The metal sector saw widespread declines, with nearly all contracts for polysilicon hitting the daily limit down, while platinum, nickel, and silver dropped around 6%. Industrial silicon and palladium fell over 4% and 3%, respectively, and copper, aluminum, and lead also decreased by more than 2% [1] - In contrast, the black chain commodities continued to show a rebound, with coking coal rising nearly 5%, leading the market, while coke increased over 2%. Iron ore saw a brief rise of nearly 2% but later fluctuated downwards [1] Coking Coal Insights - Coking coal maintained a strong performance, closing up over 4% despite a noticeable retreat from its night session highs. The supply side remains relatively tight, and the overall valuation of the black series is low, making it susceptible to positive factors [3] - Market sentiment has cooled, and recent data indicates a renewed accumulation of steel inventory, reflecting weak terminal demand. The outlook suggests that while coking coal supply and demand are balanced, market movements will be driven by macro sentiment and funding [3] Glass Market Trends - The main contract for glass continued its strong performance, closing up 2.65%. This was supported by rising coal prices and a slight improvement in the spot market, leading to a 2.37% decrease in national float glass inventory [4] - However, demand remains weak, with processing orders declining. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity, with daily melting rates anticipated to drop below 150,000 tons [4] Polysilicon Market Dynamics - On January 8, polysilicon contracts faced significant declines, with most contracts hitting the daily limit down, resulting in a 9% drop. This was primarily driven by rumors of regulatory scrutiny regarding monopolistic risks in the polysilicon market [5] - Despite some production cuts in polysilicon supply regions, demand is also weakening, leading to a continued accumulation trend in January. Analysts suggest that the market may return to a marginal cost pricing model, which could stabilize prices once terminal demand improves [5][6] Shipping Market Conditions - The shipping market, particularly the European route, is experiencing heightened pessimism due to price cuts from major shipping companies like Maersk and CMA CGM. This has led to increased selling pressure on the main contracts [6] - Concerns are growing that if shipping volumes do not meet expectations before the Spring Festival peak, it could further negatively impact the shipping market [6]