2026年供应依旧宽松 尿素区间波动是主旋律

Core Viewpoint - Urea prices in 2026 are expected to exhibit wide fluctuations, with ample supply exerting downward pressure on prices, while flexible export policies provide bottom support [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the urea industry will see a steady expansion of production capacity, with an expected addition of 4.4 million tons, primarily in the second and third quarters [2]. - By the end of 2025, domestic urea production capacity is projected to reach 79.8 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.83% [2]. - In 2026, approximately 5.27 million tons of urea capacity is still pending production, leading to a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.60% [2]. - The overall supply is expected to remain loose, impacting market prices significantly [6]. Production Costs - The production cost center is anticipated to rise, influenced by a "first suppressed, then lifted" trend in the coal market [3]. - In 2025, the complete production cost of urea from different processes varies, with fixed-bed urea costing 1917 CNY/ton, water-coal slurry at 1526 CNY/ton, and natural gas at 1978 CNY/ton [4]. Downstream Demand - Urea's apparent consumption in China for January to November 2025 was 59.86 million tons, remaining stable year-on-year [8]. - Agricultural demand is the primary driver, with direct fertilization and compound fertilizer accounting for 44.6% and 20.8% of total demand, respectively [8]. - Policies supporting high-standard farmland construction and soil fertility restoration are expected to influence urea demand positively, although the growth rate may slow over time [9]. Seasonal Demand Patterns - Urea demand exhibits seasonal characteristics, with significant usage during the growing seasons, particularly in March, June, and September [10]. - The compound fertilizer production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend, supported by policies aimed at ensuring food production [11]. Export Dynamics - The domestic urea export policy was relaxed in May 2025, with a total of approximately 4.6 million tons of export quotas allocated by November 2025 [13]. - The potential for further expansion of export quotas in 2026 could alleviate domestic supply pressures [14]. Price Outlook - Urea prices in 2026 are expected to fluctuate seasonally, with strong agricultural demand in the first half potentially supporting prices, while increased supply and lower demand in the second half may lead to price declines [14].