历史新高！金价飙升的背后：全球银行为何仍在疯狂买进？

Core Insights - Gold prices have surpassed $4,100, marking the highest annual increase since 1979, with significant speculative inflows while global central banks adopt a more cautious accumulation strategy [1] - Over 95% of surveyed central banks anticipate continued gold purchases in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2019 [1] Central Bank Gold Reserves - The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has increased from 15% three years ago to 22% currently, but remains below historical levels of 29% in 1990 and 58% in 1980 [1] - Central bank gold purchases have risen significantly, with quarterly purchases increasing from an average of 100-200 tons before Q3 2022 to 200-400 tons thereafter [5] - In a 2025 survey, 76% of central banks indicated that their gold reserves would continue to rise moderately over the next five years, up from 46% in 2022 [5] Investment Demand - The primary drivers of increased gold demand are investor risk aversion and central bank purchases, with gold seen as a low-drawdown asset that is essential for portfolio diversification [7] - In Q2, global gold ETF inflows reached 170 tons, contrasting with outflows in the same period of 2024, while physical gold investment rose by 11% to 307 tons [11] - Chinese investors led global demand for gold bars and coins, with a 44% year-on-year increase to 115 tons [11] Market Outlook - International institutions are optimistic about the gold market, with predictions of gold prices exceeding $5,100 per ounce by the end of 2026 based on expectations of U.S. monetary and fiscal easing [14] - Analysts expect gold prices to remain significantly above historical averages, approximately 150% higher than the average from 2015-2019, despite potential fluctuations [16] - Central banks are increasingly storing gold domestically, with 59% of surveyed banks indicating that their gold reserves are held within their own countries, up from 41% in 2024 [7]