或在周六，美国232关税调查结果将出！白银、铂金和钯金将面临“重大不确定性”

Core Viewpoint - The results of the U.S. Section 232 tariff investigation on critical minerals are expected to be announced on January 10, which will significantly impact the prices of Comex silver and platinum group metals [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - If tariffs are not imposed, metals are likely to flow out of the U.S. to other regions, alleviating current market tensions and lowering London spot prices [1] - In the event of tariffs, there will be a 15-day implementation window that may trigger a "rush to ship from the U.S." behavior, pushing U.S. benchmark pricing and exchange futures premiums (EFP) higher before imports decline [1] - The expected tariff rates are approximately 12.5% for platinum, 7% for palladium, and 5.5% for silver, reflecting market uncertainty [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Citigroup's research team leans towards a scenario where silver will likely avoid tariffs, given the U.S.'s heavy reliance on imported silver [3] - In a no-tariff scenario, silver prices may face temporary downward pressure, as the absence of tariffs would encourage metal outflows from the U.S., easing global market tensions [4] - The timing of the tariff decision may coincide with the annual index rebalancing window, potentially leading to a $7 billion outflow of silver, which is about 12% of Comex holdings [7] Group 3: Palladium and Platinum Tax Outlook - Palladium is most likely to face high tariffs, with a potential rate of 50%, which could lead to a sharp increase in domestic prices and create a "dual market" between the U.S. and other regions [8] - The price premium in the U.S. would reflect the tariff costs and related logistics, making U.S. prices systematically higher than global pricing centers [8] - The outlook for platinum tariffs is uncertain, with the possibility of it being taxed alongside palladium, but the U.S. has a higher dependency on platinum imports, which may lower the likelihood of tariffs [10]