笃行与锐进 || 2026全球汽车业八大猜想

Group 1: Global Automotive Trade Tensions - The global automotive industry is facing increased trade tensions, with predictions of further escalation in 2026 due to rising protectionism and unilateral trade measures by various countries [2][3] - The World Trade Organization has significantly lowered its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 to 0.5%, while Allianz Trade predicts only 0.6%, both well below the 2.4% expected for 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Slowdown in International Electric Vehicle Sales - The global electric vehicle market is expected to experience a slowdown in sales growth in 2026, with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reporting a decline in growth rates since November 2025 [4][5] - The U.S. market outlook is particularly bleak, with the cancellation of electric vehicle incentives leading to a significant drop in consumer purchasing intentions [4] - In China, the growth forecast for electric vehicle sales has been revised down from 16% to 14% for 2026, attributed to high base effects and the reintroduction of purchase taxes [5][6] Group 3: Acceleration of Localization by Chinese Automakers - Chinese automakers are accelerating their localization strategies overseas, driven by high export volumes and increasing trade barriers [7][8] - Companies like BYD and Changan are establishing local production facilities in markets such as Thailand and Hungary, indicating a strategic shift from simple vehicle exports to localized production [7][8] Group 4: Transformation of Sino-Foreign Automotive Cooperation - The cooperation model between Chinese and foreign automakers is evolving from "market for technology" to a deeper collaboration focused on technology output and resource sharing [9][10] - Chinese automotive brands are increasingly leading in technology development, with foreign partners seeking to leverage their advancements in electric vehicle technology for global expansion [9][10] Group 5: Commercialization of Robotaxi Services - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the commercialization of Robotaxi services, with advancements in technology and regulatory environments facilitating large-scale operations [11][12] - Companies like Tesla and Waymo are expanding their Robotaxi services, marking a significant step towards widespread adoption [11][12] Group 6: Emergence of Solid-State Batteries - 2026 is recognized as a critical year for the validation of solid-state battery technology, with multiple automakers planning to conduct vehicle testing [13][14] - Chinese automakers are actively pursuing solid-state battery production, with several companies announcing plans for testing and production timelines [13][14] Group 7: Integration of AI in Automotive Industry - The integration of AI models into vehicles is expected to redefine the automotive industry, with significant advancements in smart driving and intelligent cockpit technologies anticipated in 2026 [15][16] - The market for AI-driven automotive services is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could exceed 100 billion yuan by 2028 [15][16] Group 8: Rise of Humanoid Robots in Automotive Sector - 2026 is set to be a key year for the mass production and commercialization of humanoid robots by automotive companies, with many firms planning to launch their products [17][18] - Companies like Tesla and Xpeng are leading the charge in humanoid robot development, with plans for large-scale deployment in various sectors [17][18]