高盛上调上半年铜价预测至每吨12750美元

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton due to limited inventories outside the U.S. and the presence of a shortage premium [2] - The bank noted that copper prices have exceeded the fundamental value of approximately $11,400 per ton, but a pullback is unlikely before the second quarter as the market awaits a clear decision from the U.S. on refined copper tariffs [3] - COMEX copper inventories continue to rise, while LME copper stocks are declining due to concerns over U.S. tariffs, which increases the risk of tightening refined copper supply outside the U.S. [4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects that copper prices will not sustain above $13,000 and anticipates a pullback in prices during the second quarter [5] - The bank maintained its fourth-quarter 2026 copper price forecast at $11,200 per ton and revised its U.S. copper inventory forecast down from 750,000 tons to 600,000 tons [6] Group 3 - As the largest copper consumer globally, China's industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [7]