美联储1月维持利率不变概率高达88.4%，高度契合XBIT对加密市场预期判断

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates in January with an 88.4% probability, reflecting a complex monetary policy debate amid conflicting employment and inflation data [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Dynamics - The consensus to maintain interest rates was supported by all voting members in the December meeting, but significant divisions are expected by 2025 [2][4]. - The labor market is showing signs of strain, with only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August 2025 and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, while core PCE inflation remains relatively high at 2.6% [2][4]. - Internal disagreements among Federal Reserve officials are evident, with 9 out of 18 supporting two rate cuts and 6 advocating for only one, highlighting differing economic outlooks [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets are reacting to the policy stalemate, with a 40.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March, while the probability of maintaining rates is at 55.4% [5]. - The uncertainty has led to fluctuations in the dollar index between 103 and 105, and gold prices have surged past $2900 per ounce, reaching a new high since 2025 [5]. Group 3: Structural Economic Challenges - The U.S. labor market is undergoing significant adjustments, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, indicating that 51% of previously reported jobs may not exist [6]. - Inflation management is complicated by tariffs that push costs onto consumers, with CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year in August 2025, and a 4.2% increase in the service price index [8]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - Emerging markets are expected to see increased capital inflows during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, with historical data showing an average increase of 15%-20% [9]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high amid the policy stalemate, while German bond yields have dropped to -0.2% due to the European Central Bank's tightening [9]. - Gold prices have risen by 28% due to policy uncertainty, while WTI crude oil prices are fluctuating around $65 per barrel, indicating a lag in the transmission of rate cuts to industrial commodity prices [9]. Group 5: Decentralized Finance Insights - Decentralized financial assets are gaining traction, with Bitcoin and Ethereum averaging a 45% increase over the past three months, outperforming traditional safe-haven assets [11]. - The international demand for the Chinese cross-border payment system (CIPS) has increased, with a 42% year-on-year growth in transaction amounts in the first half of 2025 [11]. - The ongoing policy stalemate is expected to accelerate the diversification of the global monetary system, with central banks increasing their allocations to gold and cryptocurrencies [11].