光大期货：1月9日金融日报

Stock Market - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with Wind All A rising by 0.08% and a trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.82% and the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.73% [1] - The defense and military industry led the gains, while non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials saw corrections [1] - There was a significant net subscription of 110 billion yuan in broad-based ETFs in December, with nearly 102 billion yuan allocated to the A500 ETF, indicating strong market sentiment [1] - The A500 index has a high correlation with the CSI 300 index, with a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.98, suggesting that the A500 index has a slightly higher growth focus [1] - The short-term outlook for stock indices is expected to remain within the consolidation range established since October, with the CSI 1000's revenue growth supporting its current valuation [1] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures closed up by 0.37%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts rose by 0.15%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [2] - The bond market is supported by a reasonable liquidity environment, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose constraints [2] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with upward rate breakthroughs requiring significant inflation increases [2] Precious Metals - London spot precious metals initially declined but later rebounded, with the gold-silver ratio rising to around 58.1 and the platinum-palladium spread narrowing to approximately 473 USD/oz [3] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 208,000, slightly above the previous value but still below market expectations, indicating a stable labor market [3] - The Federal Reserve's report shows consumer inflation expectations for the next year at 3.4%, higher than the previous month's 3.2%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation [3] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. Treasury Secretary's announcement on lifting sanctions against Venezuela and Trump's proposed military budget increase, have influenced market sentiment towards gold [3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains low, with increasing market divergence suggesting a cautious approach, particularly for silver, platinum, and palladium [3]