供过于求格局短期难以扭转 PP延续弱势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that polypropylene (PP) prices are expected to decline throughout 2025, with cautious expectations for 2026 due to oversupply and weak demand in the market [1][2] Group 2 - In 2025, the primary reason for the decline in PP prices is weak fundamentals, with total production capacity increasing by over 10% year-on-year and production volume rising by approximately 17% [1] - The demand side shows sluggish performance in key downstream industries, particularly in real estate, which affects consumption in construction materials and home appliances [1] - Domestic plastic product output from January to November 2025 reached 64.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but the operating rates in major PP downstream sectors remain low [1] Group 3 - In 2026, the PP market will continue to face a complex macro and industrial environment, with planned new capacity of 9.9 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [2] - The real estate sector is expected to maintain downward pressure until 2027, limiting demand for related chemical products [2] - Overall, the PP industry in 2026 will exhibit characteristics of high supply, weak demand, and low profits, with futures prices lacking a basis for significant upward trends [2]