Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-09 01:51Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888)(01880) saw a nearly 4% increase in stock price, currently at 84 HKD, with a trading volume of 50.17 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment driven by tourism growth in Hainan [1] Group 1: Tourism Market Performance - During the New Year's holiday in 2026, Hainan's tourism market experienced a strong start, with 2.1716 million visitors, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [1] - The total tourism revenue reached 3.136 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.9%, with revenue growth outpacing visitor growth by 3.7 percentage points, indicating an ongoing optimization of consumption structure [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Guoyuan International's report highlights that the benefits of the closure policy and diversified product offerings will drive Hainan's tourism market into a new phase of high-quality development [1] - Morgan Stanley's report expresses a positive outlook for Hainan's tourism retail sector, citing factors such as gradual macroeconomic recovery, positive wealth effects, expansion of product categories, and policy support [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that by Q4 2025, China Duty Free Group's revenue, operating profit, and net profit will grow by 19%, 92%, and 135% year-on-year, respectively, although it anticipates a 1% and 9% decline in annual revenue and profit for the full year [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, Morgan Stanley expects Hainan's duty-free market to grow by 25% to 30%, which will drive a 44% increase in profitability for China Duty Free Group [1]