Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2026-01-09 01:50Group 1: Potash Market - Global potash supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international potash prices on the rise. China, being the largest potash consumer, has an import dependency exceeding 60%. In 2024, China's potassium chloride production is expected to be 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are projected to reach 12.633 million tons, an increase of 9.1%, marking a historical high [2] - As of December 2025, domestic potassium chloride port inventory is 2.4294 million tons, a decrease of 615,300 tons year-on-year, with a decline rate of 0.21%. Due to increasing emphasis on food production safety, it is anticipated that domestic potash safety stock will rise to over 4 million tons [2] - The average market price of potassium chloride in December was 3,282 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [2] Group 2: Phosphate Market - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining extractable grades and increasing extraction costs in China, alongside growing demand from new sectors such as lithium iron phosphate. The market price for 30% grade phosphate rock has remained in the high price range of 900 yuan/ton for over three years [3] - As of December 31, 2025, the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei is 1,040 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan it is 970 yuan/ton, both remaining stable compared to the previous month [3] Group 3: Lithium Iron Phosphate - China's lithium iron phosphate production capacity is currently 5.945 million tons per year, with a projected output of 3.82 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.59%. As of January 7, 2026, the market price for lithium iron phosphate is approximately 50,300 yuan/ton, up 57.19% from the lowest price of 32,000 yuan/ton in June 2025 [4] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is driven by the growing energy storage and power battery sectors, leading to a significant increase in the demand for phosphorus-containing new energy materials [4] Group 4: Glyphosate Market - Glyphosate prices experienced fluctuations in 2025, rising from 23,200 yuan/ton in April to 27,700 yuan/ton in October, before declining to 23,800 yuan/ton by the end of the year. The price changes were primarily influenced by demand variations, particularly from South America [6] - The export of glyphosate from China to North America saw a significant increase of 62.89% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, but the high inventory levels in North America led to a decrease in demand towards the end of 2025 [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - For potash, the company recommends focusing on the resource scarcity attribute, particularly highlighting "Yara International," with expected potassium chloride production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [7] - In the phosphate sector, the company suggests investing in leading firms with rich phosphate reserves such as "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," while also monitoring companies like "Hubei Yihua" and "Yuntu Holdings" that are improving phosphate self-sufficiency [7] - In the pesticide sector, recommended companies include "Yangnong Chemical" and "Lier Chemical," with a focus on firms like "Xingfa Group" and "Limin Co." that are expanding their product lines and market presence [7]