万腾平台：2026年前或需降息1.5%以促进就业市场恢复

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a proposal to reduce interest rates by 150 basis points by 2026 to further support labor market recovery, based on an assessment of inflation and policy effectiveness [2] - Current monetary policy is seen as restrictive, impacting employment, with a focus on whether inflation is close enough to the target rather than if it has fully returned to it [2][4] - The underlying inflation rate is around 2.3%, considered normal noise rather than a signal for continued high rates, indicating a mid-term trend perspective rather than a reaction to short-term data [2] Group 2 - There is a disconnect between official forecasts and market expectations, with policymakers being conservative in their adjustments while the market anticipates more easing [3] - Milan's consistent stance since last year reflects a long-term observation of inflation structure changes and labor supply elasticity, prioritizing the need for economic recovery over short-term inflation concerns [4] - The core message emphasizes the need to reassess the policy focus away from excessive risk aversion towards addressing real economic recovery needs, especially as inflation pressures ease [4]