高盛：预测今年MSCI新兴市场指数总回报可达17%

Group 1: Emerging Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs reports that emerging market assets are expected to achieve strong returns in 2025, with a projected 14% return in USD terms and a 17% total return for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2026, supported by a favorable global macro environment and strong AI demand [1] - The report highlights that markets sensitive to the technology sector, such as China, South Korea, and Taiwan, are particularly promising due to friendly market policies and AI-driven growth [1] - Investors are advised to allocate some funds to domestic consumption-driven markets like South Africa, India, and Brazil, with South Africa benefiting from economic recovery and interest rate cuts, India from consumer recovery, and Brazil from declining policy rates despite potential election uncertainties in Q4 2026 [1] Group 2: Currency Market Insights - The global outlook for 2026 presents a favorable environment for emerging market currencies, particularly those sensitive to economic cycles, such as the South African Rand, Chilean Peso, and Korean Won [2] - In Asia, technology-related currencies like the Korean Won, New Taiwan Dollar, and Malaysian Ringgit are expected to outperform, while high-yield currencies may lag [2] - Frontier market currencies, such as the Egyptian Pound, are considered attractive due to low correlation with other assets and improving fundamentals, including accumulated foreign exchange reserves [2] Group 3: Fixed Income Performance - 2025 is anticipated to be another resilient year for emerging market sovereign debt, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads compared to early last year, making risk-return asymmetry less attractive entering 2026 [3] - Goldman Sachs recommends a defensive strategy to capture yield while mitigating risks from potential U.S. equity and interest rate fluctuations, favoring investment-grade bonds in Hungary and Peru, and high-yield bonds in Egypt, Kenya, Pakistan, and South Africa [3] - The strategy should be combined with hedging, particularly in Brazil and Colombia, to protect against U.S. market and interest rate shocks, as well as in Angola, Bahrain, and Oman to hedge against predicted oil price declines [3]