方正证券：原奶价格周期向上 板块配置价值愈显

Group 1 - The current downward cycle of milk prices has lasted over 50 months, and an upward turning point is expected soon [2] - The supply-demand imbalance in raw milk is gradually easing, with rising feed and beef prices accelerating the clearing of upstream farms, leading to a decrease in domestic dairy cattle inventory and fresh milk production [2] - The price of imported dairy products has surpassed domestic raw milk prices, and this price gap is expected to persist, potentially accelerating domestic product substitution [2] Group 2 - Dairy companies are increasingly controlling or holding stakes in large-scale upstream farms, enhancing stability and quality control of milk supply, which aligns their operational performance with the raw milk price cycle [3] - As the new upward cycle of raw milk prices begins, the operational performance of dairy companies is expected to improve, leading to a potential increase in valuations and a new "Davis Double" moment for the dairy sector [3]