2026年可能出现的10个惊喜

Core Insights - The article discusses the release of "10 Surprises for 2026" by TBS and Bloomberg, continuing the legacy of Byron Wien, who was known for his contrarian market insights and predictions [1][2] Group 1: Predictions Overview - The predictions cover six key areas: autonomous driving, real estate, technology capital, monetary policy, trade policy, and cryptocurrency, each challenging market expectations [4] - Waymo's autonomous taxis are expected to expand into more U.S. cities by 2026, leading to discussions about banning human driving in urban centers [4] - New York City's rental policies are shifting towards taxing vacant properties, which is anticipated to slightly reduce rental prices amid housing supply challenges [5] - SpaceX's IPO is projected to significantly increase the valuation of Elon Musk's business empire, potentially making him the world's first trillionaire [6] Group 2: Monetary and Trade Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate policy in 2026, resisting calls from former President Trump for rate cuts, emphasizing a focus on long-term economic stability [8] - The U.S. Supreme Court is likely to uphold Trump's tariff measures, which are not expected to have a significant impact on inflation, alleviating concerns about tariffs driving up prices [9] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin is projected to attempt to reach its historical high from October 2025 but is unlikely to succeed, with its volatility expected to decrease, enhancing its perception as a store of value [10] - Financial products linked to Bitcoin are set to be introduced, targeting the baby boomer generation, which may broaden the appeal of cryptocurrency investments [10] Group 4: Anticipation for Remaining Predictions - The remaining four predictions have yet to be disclosed, generating significant interest among global investors and policy researchers, highlighting the value of contrarian thinking in identifying overlooked risks and opportunities [11]