Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is projected to have 500 million air travelers by the end of 2025, making it the largest aviation population globally, but this also means that approximately 900 million people in China have never flown [1][24]. - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has reiterated its commitment to curbing "involution" in the industry, specifically by prohibiting airlines from selling tickets below cost [2][3]. Industry Trends - The media interprets the CAAC's stance as a signal that airfares may enter a rising trend, as discussions about price limits have been ongoing since early last year [3][6]. - Despite the CAAC's efforts, low-cost tickets below 200 yuan have not completely disappeared due to online travel agencies (OTAs) subsidizing fares to attract users [4][6]. - The civil aviation industry reported a profit of 6.5 billion yuan in 2025, with major airlines like Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern showing profitability, while private carriers like Spring Airlines have experienced significant growth [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The current situation presents a paradox where airlines are becoming profitable, yet consumers feel the pinch as low-cost tickets become scarce, raising concerns about the future of affordable air travel [7][26]. - The CAAC's push against involution reflects broader economic pressures in China, aiming to prevent companies from engaging in destructive price wars that could jeopardize cash flow across industries [8][9]. - The profitability of international routes, particularly to Japan, has been threatened by geopolitical uncertainties, leading to an oversupply of domestic flights and increased operational costs for airlines [9][12]. Competitive Landscape - The high-speed rail system in China poses a significant competitive threat to the aviation industry, as it offers a more convenient and often cheaper alternative for travelers, especially as airfares rise [15][22]. - The psychological pricing of air tickets is influenced by the cost of train tickets, and if airfares rise significantly, it may deter potential travelers who perceive flying as too expensive [25][26]. - The operational efficiency of airlines, such as Shandong Airlines, is increasingly driven by the need to compete with the extensive high-speed rail network in densely populated regions [17][18].
低价机票正在被围剿
3 6 Ke·2026-01-09 02:19