重要商品指数再平衡开启，两大投行预言“白银两周内调整”，高盛“关键还是伦敦”

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo annual rebalancing, significantly reducing the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9% and silver from 9.6% to 3.94%, leading to substantial selling pressure on silver [1][2]. Group 1: Rebalancing Details - The rebalancing period will start after market close on January 8 and continue until January 14, with execution from January 9 to 15 [1]. - The BCOM index weights are calculated based on two-thirds trading volume and one-third global production, with a maximum weight limit of 15% for any single commodity to maintain diversification [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities estimate that $7.7 billion in silver sell orders will flood the market over the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market, potentially causing significant price corrections [2][3]. - Silver is expected to experience the highest selling pressure during the rebalancing, followed by aluminum and gold, while WTI crude oil, natural gas, and low-sulfur diesel will see increased buying demand [4][5]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh noted that the rebalancing is unfavorable for precious metals but beneficial for crude oil [3][4]. - TD Securities analyst Daniel Ghali highlighted that the trading volume of the largest silver ETF has reached extreme levels, indicating speculative fervor among retail investors, which may lead to a significant revaluation of silver prices [9]. - Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas emphasized that liquidity in the London market is crucial for determining silver price trends, predicting continued extreme price volatility as long as inventory tightness persists [10][11].