国信证券：一季度制冷剂长协价格落地 关注PVDF价格持续修复

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, with expectations for continued demand and price increases for mainstream refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125, as well as a positive outlook for companies with leading positions in the refrigerant quota market [1] Group 1: Refrigerant Pricing and Production - In Q1, the long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants have continued to rise, with R32 expected to reach 61,200 yuan/ton, a 1.66% increase from Q4 2025, and R410A at 55,100 yuan/ton, a 3.57% increase [1] - The expected price ranges for the upcoming week are approximately 62,000-63,000 yuan/ton for R32, 55,000-56,000 yuan/ton for R410A, and 56,000-57,000 yuan/ton for R134a [1] - The prices for R134a and R125 have increased to 58,000 yuan/ton and 47,500 yuan/ton respectively, with R410A also seeing a rise to 54,500 yuan/ton [2] Group 2: Production and Export Trends - Domestic production of air conditioners in January 2026 reached 7.86 million units, an 8.9% year-on-year increase, while February saw a decrease of 12% [3] - Exports in January 2026 totaled 1.065 million units, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, but February experienced an 11% decline [3] - The overall export market has shown a downward trend since May, with a cumulative export of 55.16 million units from January to November, reflecting a 2.9% year-on-year decrease [2] Group 3: Liquid Cooling and Demand for Fluorinated Liquids - The development of AI technology has led to increased power density in servers, pushing the demand for liquid cooling solutions, which in turn is expected to boost the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants [4] - Companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyue Group are recommended for their potential in this growing market [4] Group 4: PVDF Price Trends - The PVDF market is experiencing a price increase due to rising raw material costs and improved supply-demand dynamics, with mainstream prices for different grades ranging from 54,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5] - Companies are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices and pass on cost pressures to downstream customers [5] Group 5: Industry News - Dongyangguang has acquired Datuhot Control; Dongyue Group has announced an expansion project for R32 production; Jinshi Resources plans to acquire a 15.71% stake in Noah Fluorine Chemical for 257 million yuan [6]