全球瞭望｜美经济学家：美关税对全球经济冲击将进一步显现

Group 1 - The current global economic "stability" is misleading, as structural damage from tariffs is being obscured by short-term factors [1] - By 2025, the U.S. will raise tariff levels to their highest in nearly a century, leading to significant global policy uncertainty, yet global economic growth is projected at 3.2%, which may mislead assessments of the impact of trade wars [1] - Structural damage often manifests with a delay, as seen in the case of Brexit, where the long-term GDP impact was significant despite short-term stability [1] Group 2 - Approximately 95% of tariff costs are borne by U.S. companies, with only a portion passed on to consumers, which has raised U.S. inflation by about 0.7 percentage points, deviating from the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - Tariffs have resulted in an average real income loss of about $600 for U.S. households [2] - Short-term factors such as the AI investment boom and expansionary fiscal policies in countries like the U.S. and Germany have temporarily masked the negative impacts of tariffs on the global economy [2] - The economic situation is fragile, particularly in the AI sector, where high valuations are being scrutinized against actual revenue, leading to market pressure on companies that have increased AI investments without corresponding income [2] - By 2026, as the buffer effect of early imports fades, companies will pass more tariff costs onto consumers, making the economic and social damage from tariffs more apparent [2]