Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-09 02:40Core Insights - Goldman Sachs held a series of management outlook meetings for the Chinese automotive industry, observing a generally conservative outlook on overall industry volume, with expectations of double-digit sales growth for individual companies and increased overseas expansion [1][2] - The anticipated retail sales growth for new energy vehicles in China for 2026 is approximately 10%, with significant variations in subsidy impacts across different price segments [2] - The competitive landscape in the high-end market is intensifying, with a projected launch of 119 new models in 2026, indicating a crowded high-end segment and a shift in competitive focus [3] Group 1 - The management teams of the participating companies expressed a cautious outlook for the overall industry, predicting a year-on-year retail sales growth for domestic passenger vehicles in 2026 to range from a decline of 5% to an increase of 1% [1] - The total subsidy amount for consumer goods in 2026 is estimated to be around 250 billion RMB, slightly lower than previous years, despite the continuation of the "trade-in" subsidy policy [1] - Six OEMs expect their sales growth in 2026 to range from 11% to 68%, while overseas sales growth is anticipated to be between 19% and 108% [2] Group 2 - Companies are planning to accelerate their overseas expansion in 2026, with a focus on launching more overseas versions of new models and establishing local sales and service channels [3] - The new model pipeline for this year is described as ambitious, with a significant increase in high-end models expected, particularly in the 250,000 to 300,000 RMB price range [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts a contraction in the domestic profit pool for the Chinese automotive industry in 2026, while the overseas market is expected to see accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles [3]