广发证券：全球金属矿高景气 矿机出海+后市场迎新机

Core Viewpoint - The demand for resource products is increasing while the ore grade is declining, leading to a new upward cycle for global mining machinery [1] Group 1: Global Mining Machinery Market - According to Caterpillar's 2025 Investor Day, global mining capital expenditure is expected to grow by 50% from 2024 to 2030 [1] - Demand for key minerals such as copper, graphite, and nickel is projected to increase by 22%, 118%, and 52% respectively from 2024 to 2035 [1] - The decline in global ore grades is expected to drive an increase in mining output and lean production [1] Group 2: Growth Opportunities in Africa - Approximately 75% of excavator demand in Africa is driven by the mining of copper, gold, and lithium [2] - Excavator sales in Africa increased by 59% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with countries like Guinea, Mali, and Nigeria seeing growth rates exceeding 100% [2] - Chinese mining companies are intensifying their operations in Africa, supported by infrastructure investments that replace energy imports from Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2] Group 3: Shift in Client Base - For example, the overseas revenue share of Yunjigroup (001288) increased from 0.2% in 2021 to 68% in 2024 [3] - The growth in overseas markets is characterized by a shift from domestic sand and gravel applications to overseas metal mining [3] - There is a transition from Chinese clients to foreign clients in the mining machinery sector [3] Group 4: Aftermarket Opportunities - Companies like Komatsu, Sandvik, and Weir have over 50% of their revenue coming from the aftermarket [4] - The current mining machinery cycle presents structural opportunities for Chinese companies, particularly in remote areas where infrastructure is lacking [4] - Approximately 60% of mining machinery services have a lifespan exceeding 10 years, indicating a need for replacement and new market entry for Chinese firms [4] Group 5: New Business Models - New technologies are replacing old ones, such as conveyor belts replacing railways and electric products replacing fuel-powered ones [5] - Mining machinery companies are diversifying their profit structures by investing in upstream mining assets, as seen with Naipu Mining (300818) and South Mining Group (001360) [5] - These investments are expected to benefit future mining machinery products and aftermarket services [5] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The high standardization of front-end equipment presents significant opportunities, with recommendations for XCMG Machinery (000425) and SANY International, and a suggestion to pay attention to Tongli Co [6] - The strong customization attributes of back-end equipment allow for rapid breakthroughs, with recommendations for Yunjigroup, Naipu Mining, and a suggestion to focus on South Mining Group [6]