美元未受特朗普掀起的地缘政治动荡惊扰 美联储政策前景仍是关键动力

Group 1 - The unexpected resilience of the U.S. economy is overshadowing geopolitical turmoil caused by President Donald Trump, leading to increased short positions on the dollar as traders anticipate a decline due to potential Fed rate cuts [1] - Despite concerns over Trump's actions, including threats to Venezuela and other nations, the dollar has strengthened, indicating that forex traders are largely ignoring these geopolitical risks [1] - Recent employment data has not shown the anticipated slowdown, raising questions about the extent of potential Fed rate cuts this year [1] Group 2 - Speculation exists that Trump's actions could jeopardize the dollar's status as the world's primary currency, leading to potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly during market turbulence in April [2] - After experiencing one of the most significant declines since the early 1970s, the dollar stabilized in the latter half of 2025 as Trump rolled back some tariffs and the economy progressed steadily [2] - Wall Street analysts predict a long-term downward trend for the dollar as the Fed gradually lowers interest rates, with a notable increase of approximately $21 billion in speculative short positions on the dollar in January, the largest since March 2020 [2]