干货满满！2026年基金策略会核心观点来了

Core Insights - 2025 is marked as a historic year with significant changes in global capital markets driven by generative AI and shifting interest rate cycles [1][2] - The focus is shifting from short-term market movements to long-term structural changes and variables that will shape the future [2] Group 1: Technological Revolution and Investment Strategies - The year 2025 is identified as the "starting year" of the third global technological revolution, with generative AI as the core driving force [4] - The speed of technological iteration is unprecedented, with new architectures emerging every 2-3 months and significant performance improvements in large models [4] - China has transitioned from a follower to a leader in this technological revolution, supported by advantages such as a strong engineering workforce and a complete supply chain [4] - Three key investment themes are proposed: global AI industry participants, semiconductor self-sufficiency, and Hong Kong technology platform companies [4] Group 2: Market Valuation and ETF Opportunities - Concerns about an AI bubble are deemed premature, as current AI investment levels are significantly lower than during the internet bubble [6] - The decline in Hong Kong tech stocks in Q4 2025 is attributed to temporary funding disruptions, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 with improved liquidity [6] - The analysis framework for Hong Kong tech stocks includes domestic macroeconomic expectations, U.S. Federal Reserve policies, and AI industry logic [6] - A focus on the Hang Seng Tech Index is recommended, emphasizing a pure TMT approach while avoiding sectors like pharmaceuticals and automotive [6] Group 3: Dividend Strategies in a Low-Interest Environment - In a low-interest and asset-scarce environment post-2022, dividend assets have shifted from cyclical to core allocation assets with bond-like characteristics [8] - The China Securities Dividend Index, which includes 100 high-dividend stocks, is projected to yield a dividend rate of 6% by December 2024, significantly above the market average [8] - A "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining dividend and growth assets to reduce volatility without sacrificing long-term returns [8] Group 4: Structural Changes in the Market - The consensus among industry experts is that the 2026 market will experience structural reorganization rather than being driven by emotional trends [10] - The global economy is in a critical phase of transitioning between old and new drivers, with technological revolutions altering production efficiency and competitive landscapes [10] - The importance of structural differences is increasing, as opportunities become less uniform across the market [11] - Technology represents a long-term productivity leap, while dividends provide stable cash flow in a low-interest environment [12]