邓正红能源软实力：机构投资者对石油的看法悲观 地缘溢价的“隐性定价机制”

Core Insights - The article discusses the geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, particularly focusing on Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran, leading to an upward trend in oil prices as of January 8 [1][4] - The U.S. administration is planning to exert control over Venezuela's oil revenues, with President Trump indicating a desire to lower oil prices to around $50 per barrel [2][5] - The concept of "soft power" is emphasized, highlighting how the U.S. is using legal and financial mechanisms rather than military force to influence oil markets and control resources [3][6] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of January 8, 2021, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by $1.77 to $57.76 per barrel, a 3.16% increase, while Brent crude oil increased by $2.03 to $61.99 per barrel, a 3.39% rise [1] - The market is currently facing a supply surplus, yet geopolitical tensions are creating a risk premium that is pushing oil prices higher [4][6] Group 2: U.S. Strategy on Venezuela - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced the lifting of some sanctions on Venezuelan entities, aiming to stabilize the existing structure in Venezuela [2] - The U.S. is implementing a "non-contact blockade" strategy against Venezuela's oil exports, using legal sanctions and financial restrictions to diminish its export capabilities [3] - The U.S. strategy includes allowing the sale of Venezuelan oil to non-U.S. buyers, which could involve companies like Reliance Industries from India [2][5] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Geopolitical factors have led to the most pessimistic outlook among institutional investors regarding oil in nearly a decade, as indicated by a Goldman Sachs survey [2][6] - The risks associated with Iran, Russia, and Iraq are not due to actual production cuts but rather uncertainties in the rules governing oil exports, which are being translated into market risk premiums [4] Group 4: Soft Power Dynamics - The article outlines a model of "soft power" where the U.S. does not physically control oil resources but influences the market through financial and legal means [3][5] - The U.S. aims to create a competitive surplus in oil supply by relaxing sanctions on Russia and pressuring OPEC members like Saudi Arabia to increase production [5] - The evolving global energy order is characterized by a shift from unilateral dominance to a multipolar framework, as emerging markets seek to navigate the changing rules of oil trade [6]