Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that without expectations, measures like subsidies to stimulate consumption will not achieve the multiplier effect described by Li Daokui [1] - The discussion has shifted from how to stimulate consumption to focusing on expectations [2] - High mortgage debt is a significant issue for Chinese households, with leverage rates rising from 18% in 2008 to 60%-70% in many cities, primarily due to real estate [3] Group 2 - The real benefit for residents lies in reducing debt levels, with suggestions for implementing zero interest rates to decrease rigid expenditures [4] - The key to boosting consumption is tied to income expectations; without job and income prospects, subsidies become unnecessary [7] - There is a clear policy direction to increase residents' income and improve the social security system, with hopes for more substantial increases in low-income groups' income by 2026 [7]
消费者的预期是决定性的
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-09 05:36