学者：石油投资需要稳定社会环境，特朗普三年内无法实现企图

Group 1 - Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves globally, and U.S. President Trump has expressed a strong interest in these resources, mentioning "oil" 26 times during a press conference, significantly more than other terms like "drugs" and "gangs" [1] - Trump plans to have large U.S. oil companies invest billions of dollars to repair Venezuela's oil infrastructure, with projects expected to be completed within 18 months, although major companies like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron have been cautious about this plan [1] - The U.S. aims to "take control" of Venezuela's oil industry, with Trump scheduled to meet with executives from major U.S. oil companies to discuss their involvement in rebuilding the oil infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Experts suggest that the U.S. may face challenges in monopolizing Venezuela's oil resources, as historical precedents indicate that post-regime change scenarios, like in Iraq, did not lead to U.S. control over oil resources [3] - The investment required for oil infrastructure in Venezuela necessitates a stable social environment, which is currently uncertain, leading to skepticism about the feasibility of Trump's plans within a three-year timeframe [3] - Venezuela's heavy oil is a critical resource for U.S. refineries, which currently rely on imports from Canada, but geopolitical tensions may complicate this supply chain [3] Group 3 - China has made significant investments in oil exploration and refining in Venezuela, viewing it as a key partner in its energy supply chain [5] - In 2025, Venezuela is projected to account for 4% of China's oil imports, indicating the importance of Venezuelan oil to China's energy strategy, despite its relatively small share [5] - Chevron remains the only major U.S. oil company currently operating in Venezuela, while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have historical ties to the region, having had their projects nationalized nearly 20 years ago [5]