南方基金：2026年，全球资产配置如何落子？

Group 1 - The global capital markets delivered impressive results in 2025, with major asset classes performing well, including a broad rise in global stock markets and a strong performance in gold, marking its best performance in nearly 46 years [1] - The market performance in 2025 was largely driven by the easing of monetary policies from major central banks and improved liquidity expectations [3] - As 2026 approaches, the investment environment is expected to become more complex due to the non-synchronous monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainties [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury market anticipates approximately 50 basis points of additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026, leading to a gradual decline in short-term Treasury yields [5] - Inflation remains a significant variable; a rebound in U.S. inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts, potentially impacting Treasury performance [6] - The earnings growth for major U.S. indices is projected to increase, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MAG 8 expected to see net profit growth rates of 15.6%, 20.0%, and 24.5% respectively, providing upward momentum for U.S. stocks [8] Group 3 - Concerns about a potential AI bubble burst in 2026 may lead to increased volatility in U.S. stocks, with current valuations of major indices at historically high levels, suggesting limited room for significant expansion [9] - The "All Weather Strategy," proposed by Ray Dalio, aims to create a diversified asset allocation that performs well across various economic environments, focusing on economic growth and inflation as core variables [10][13] - The strategy emphasizes "risk parity," where asset weights are adjusted to ensure equal contribution to overall portfolio risk, although achieving true risk parity requires professional expertise [13] Group 4 - QDII-FOF funds are highlighted as efficient tools for global asset allocation, allowing investors to access diverse global investment strategies without the complexities of direct international investing [14] - These funds can invest in a range of global assets, including U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. Treasuries, and gold, and can adjust asset proportions based on market conditions [14] - The FOF structure allows for secondary diversification by investing in a selection of high-quality global funds, which can help smooth out volatility in a complex market environment [14]