Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-09 06:00Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group (601888)(01880) H-shares from HKD 72 to HKD 100, maintaining a "Buy" rating, driven by strong sales performance in Hainan's duty-free market since Q4 last year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales have shown stronger-than-expected performance, with year-on-year growth of 13% and 27% in October and November, accelerating to 55% during the Christmas week (December 18-24) and 88% in the first week of this year [1] - The growth is attributed to new duty-free policies, wealth effects, promotional activities, and holiday concerts [1] Group 2: Profit Forecasts - Citigroup expects the strong sales trend in Hainan to continue into the winter peak season, projecting a year-on-year sales growth of over 20% for this year [1] - The earnings forecasts for the next two years have been raised by 5% and 6.6%, while the 2025 full-year earnings forecast has been lowered by 6.3% to reflect the underperformance in Q3 last year [1] Group 3: Catalysts - Citigroup anticipates an improvement in China Duty Free Group's profitability in Q4 due to the recovery of Hainan's business, initiating a 30-day observation for upward catalysts [1] - The firm is monitoring the sustainability of sales momentum during the winter peak season and the Lunar New Year holiday, which could serve as short-term catalysts for the company [1]