TMGM官网：日元连跌四日 通胀侵蚀薪资削弱货币支撑

Group 1 - The Japanese yen continues to decline against the US dollar, marking its fourth consecutive day of losses, approaching the lower end of this week's volatility range [1] - Japan's household spending data for November unexpectedly rebounded, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, but this has not reversed the yen's weakness [1] - Real wages in Japan have been declining for 11 consecutive months, with a decrease of 2.8% in November, indicating a persistent imbalance between wages and inflation [1] Group 2 - The weak economic fundamentals are undermining the yen's intrinsic support and pose challenges for the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [1] - The current Bank of Japan governor retains the potential for further tightening, emphasizing continued rate hikes if economic and price trends align with expectations [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating disputes between China and Japan, have increased supply chain risks for Japanese manufacturers, further pressuring the yen [1] Group 3 - The US dollar has been strengthening over the past two weeks, reaching a one-month high and supporting the dollar-yen exchange rate above the 157.00 mark [2] - Market sentiment and position adjustments ahead of key data releases have contributed to the dollar's strength, although expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March may limit further gains [3] - Traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach until clearer signals regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut path emerge, with focus shifting to the upcoming US non-farm payroll report [3] Group 4 - From a technical perspective, the 100-period simple moving average is gently rising to 156.31, providing immediate dynamic support for the current exchange rate [5] - The moving average convergence divergence indicator has returned to positive territory, indicating enhanced bullish momentum, while the relative strength index is at 62, suggesting solid buying pressure [5] - If bullish momentum continues, the exchange rate may rise further, with the 100-period moving average serving as a key support level in case of a pullback [5]