Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-09 06:21Group 1 - The global market is starting strong in 2026, but investors face a significant test with the upcoming U.S. labor department's December employment data and a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs [1] - The options market anticipates high volatility for the S&P 500 index, with an expected fluctuation of at least 0.9% [1] - The December non-farm payroll report is considered crucial as it may be the first reliable employment data since the government shutdown, impacting expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts expect the December non-farm payroll data to show a modest increase, with median estimates ranging from 60,000 to 155,000 new jobs [2][4] - The unemployment rate is projected to decrease slightly from 4.6% to 4.5%, aligning with the Federal Open Market Committee's expectations for the end of the year [3][4] - Various financial institutions have provided differing forecasts for the non-farm payroll figures, with no predictions indicating negative growth [2][4] Group 3 - Market volatility is anticipated to rise as employment data becomes more regularly released, following a period of calm in 2025 [2] - The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates three times in the previous year, and stable labor market data could allow for a pause in rate cuts during the upcoming meeting [8] - If the employment data is weak, it could increase the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] Group 4 - The market is preparing for potential reactions based on the non-farm payroll data, with various scenarios predicting different impacts on the S&P 500 index [9][10] - The Supreme Court's decision on tariffs is also a significant factor that could influence market dynamics, particularly in the U.S. Treasury market [12]