Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-09 06:39Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 20% and 12% respectively by 2026 [6] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 9, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 4100-point mark, marking a significant milestone not seen in ten years [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a fifteen-day consecutive rise, reaching a high of 4095.33 points, up 0.30% on January 9 [3] - The market showed strong trading activity with a half-day turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan [3] Group 2: Factors Driving Market Growth - The recent rise in A-shares is attributed to a combination of positive factors, including high liquidity, favorable policy expectations, and investor sentiment [4] - The liquidity outlook improved due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a dual easing monetary policy set by the domestic central economic work conference [4] - The central economic work conference emphasized expanding domestic demand and technological innovation as key focuses for 2026, providing structural investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Institutional Outlook - Citic Securities forecasts a continued bull market in 2026, driven by policy shifts and improved liquidity, alongside a focus on technology sector growth [5] - The investment community is optimistic about the Chinese market, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares [6] - Morgan Stanley also raised its rating on the Chinese market to "overweight," citing reasonable valuations and light positioning by international investors [6] Group 4: Earnings Growth Expectations - Goldman Sachs anticipates that corporate earnings in China will grow by 14% and 12% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, with overseas revenue growth contributing to performance [6] - UBS projects that the overall A-share earnings growth rate will increase from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by GDP growth and supportive policies [7]