Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the average stock price of covered Chinese software companies is expected to rise by 16% by 2025, underperforming the MSCI China Index by 23% [1] - The outlook for software demand in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, driven by accelerated AI monetization and trends in software import substitution, despite weak demand across various verticals [1] - The forecast for the Chinese software and IT services industry anticipates a 12% year-on-year revenue growth in 2026, down from a projected 13% growth in 2025 [1] Group 2 - After a downward revision of approximately 2% for the revenue forecast for 2025-2026, the average revenue growth for covered software companies is expected to accelerate to 14% year-on-year in 2026, compared to 7% in 2025 [1] - The company holds a selectively positive view on companies in the enterprise resource planning (ERP), photo editing software, and office software sectors, as these segments show higher growth visibility under the SaaS model and AI-driven initiatives [1] - Caution is maintained regarding cybersecurity and real estate software due to weak demand, with preferred stocks including Kingdee International (00268), Meitu Inc. (01357), and Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), all rated as "Buy" [1]
美银证券:中资软件首选股金蝶国际、美图公司及金山办公